Canada: A deeper contraction – Standard Chartered

Economists at Standard Chartered Bank downgrade the Canadian 2020 GDP forecast as surveys and employment data point to a deep recession in the first half of 2020. 

 Key quotes

“We expect the economy to contract by 8.0% in 2020 (previously -4.0%), with H1 in deep recession. A recovery in activity in H2-2020 should underpin 2021; we expect GDP growth of 6.7% in 2021 (previously 2.7%).”

“Employment fell by over 1mn in March (eight times as much as the previous record decline in 2009); job losses could exceed 5mn, taking the unemployment rate to 30% or higher.”

“A rate cut to 0.10% or 0.15% cannot be ruled out.”