NZ: Commodity Price index posted 0.4% m/m gain in March - ANZ

Con Williams, Agri Economist at ANZ, explains that the New Zealand’s headline ANZ Commodity Price index eked out a small 0.4% m/m gain in March and compared with March last year, international prices are up 23%.

Key Quotes

“Importantly for exporters, a 2.9% fall in the NZD TWI during March lifted local returns by 3.4% m/m. Compared with the same time last year local prices are 16.5% higher.”

“In March there were a number of contrasting trends at the sector level, and even within the categories that make up each sector. Within the headline index, dairy (-1.8%) and seafood (-3.4%) prices both declined, but movements for specific products within each varied significantly. Meat and fibre prices experienced the biggest gain (+3.8%), followed by aluminium (+2.7%) and forestry (+1.2%). Horticultural prices were unchanged. In aggregate, the non-dairy component of the index rose 1.8% m/m and has gained 5.0% since the start of 2017.”

“The variable nature of price movements during the month highlights the fact that many products are currently trading on their own individual supply-demand fundamentals rather than in a synchronised fashion. This implies macroeconomic drivers (USD movements, reflation expectations, oil prices, China’s economic growth etc) are having a reduced say at present.”