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30 Nov 2015
Key technical levels for major FX pairs - Nomura
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, lists down the technical levels for major currency pairs.
Key Quotes
“USD/JPY: With a weighted average response looking for a 2.05% move higher into year end, this would imply USD/JPY at around 125, consistent with our own expectations and higher than the levels implied in the previous October client survey.
EUR/USD: This is the standout view from clients, with a weighted average response of a 2.64% move lower, this would imply a prevailing rate of 1.04 for EUR/USD (slightly below our own forecast of 1.05, see European FX Forecast Update, 18 November 2015) albeit reflecting the possibility that EUR/USD could head lower than that, as we explain in EURUSD: Finally, a test of parity seems probable, 12 November 2015.
GBP/USD: As it was in our last survey, expectations for GBP were pretty split. The key difference this time is that USD strength has fed through to the skew of estimates and on a weighted average basis, it is looking for GBP/USD to be 0.4% lower by year end. Taking this into account it is expected to trade around current levels that are in line with our forecast of GBP/USD at 1.52 by year end.
AUD/USD: A weighted average response implying a move lower by 1.3% would see AUD/USD at around 0.71, which is just shy of our own forecast of 0.70 for year-end AUD/USD. This is a slight deterioration in clients views of AUD, which were already quite low back in October with 54% expecting AUD to decline (from 47% previously).”
Key Quotes
“USD/JPY: With a weighted average response looking for a 2.05% move higher into year end, this would imply USD/JPY at around 125, consistent with our own expectations and higher than the levels implied in the previous October client survey.
EUR/USD: This is the standout view from clients, with a weighted average response of a 2.64% move lower, this would imply a prevailing rate of 1.04 for EUR/USD (slightly below our own forecast of 1.05, see European FX Forecast Update, 18 November 2015) albeit reflecting the possibility that EUR/USD could head lower than that, as we explain in EURUSD: Finally, a test of parity seems probable, 12 November 2015.
GBP/USD: As it was in our last survey, expectations for GBP were pretty split. The key difference this time is that USD strength has fed through to the skew of estimates and on a weighted average basis, it is looking for GBP/USD to be 0.4% lower by year end. Taking this into account it is expected to trade around current levels that are in line with our forecast of GBP/USD at 1.52 by year end.
AUD/USD: A weighted average response implying a move lower by 1.3% would see AUD/USD at around 0.71, which is just shy of our own forecast of 0.70 for year-end AUD/USD. This is a slight deterioration in clients views of AUD, which were already quite low back in October with 54% expecting AUD to decline (from 47% previously).”